Gold impacted by NFP, Dollar Surged Weekly update

Weekly Gold forecast

Gold price opened flat on Monday and continued trading in 1290$-1300$ range. Before Non farm payroll data it surged to test 1306$, Our resistance in daily gold forecast was 1309$. It could not break our resistance but achieved our intraday signal target at 1306$. Just before Non farm payroll data President Trump tweeted that i am looking forward to jobs data. Even a dumb person knows he have early access to jobs data and if he is looking forward to it, then it must be good.

Market did not waste any time and reacted sharply. Dollar Index surged and gold price crashed even before jobs data and as expected Non farm employment change came at 223K vs 159K forecast was just 189K. It exceeded all forecast and expectations and cleared what President Trump tweeted earlier. It further pulled gold price down from 1306$ to 1291$. It finally gave a close at 1291$.

Earlier we had bad jobless claims data which pushed gold from 1297$ to 1305$ but Non farm data gave a different picture altogether. Initial jobless data may be indication for next month Non farm payroll, but we will have to see next week what initial jobless numbers are.

Technical chart shows a double top at 1306$, Market needs to break and close above this level to resume any more buying for medium to long term. Once traders break this resistance and manage to close above our resistance. Then expect good recovery in gold price upto 1335$- 1356$.

gold technical chart

gold technical chart

A good base as shown in chart stands at 1281$, Once traders break and close below this level then expect more pressure in gold price upto 1260$- 1235$.

Gold forecast conclusion: Gold forecast is flat for this week. We will wait and see where gold opens first and then will decide to trade. Watch our daily technical levels to determine the intraday trend.

We would recommend buy in dips with stoploss below 1281$ but buy should be initiated only once 1306$ is out and gold close above this level. ( This is not our official trade, Positional signal given to our paid subscribers )

Join any of our package in just $99 for first month.

Dollar Index

Dollar Index (DXX) had its fun last week when it tested 95 following euro crash due to Italy’s political fiasco. Dollar shot nearly 200bps when Italy was facing political uncertainty. Dollar gained and euro to dollar crashed badly. It lost almost 300 bps against dollar testing almost at 1.1500. But dollar’s party could not be longer when market realized that Italy’s problem is almost over.

Euro to dollar shot back and gained nearly 150 pips from lows and dollar lost nearly 100 pips from there. Dollar Index gave a close at 94.15. A good support on dollar chart stands at 93.50, If traders break and close below this level. Then expect more pressure upto 93.10- 92.50 this week.

A good resistance stands at 95.05, once this break last week high and close above this then expect 95.40- 95.80 in dollar.

Dollar Index trend is flat for this week. Watch technical levels to take a trade.

Silver forecast

Silver price did not shown any strength last week and traded in a small range. It tested 16.70$ but could not sustain on higher levels. It finally sank till 16.40$ and gave a even weaker close below 16.40$. Even President Trump’s tariff on Canada and European union could not give silver price any push and it close pretty weak.

A good support on silver technical chart stands at 16$, If traders break and close below this level. Then expect more pressure in silver price upto 15.60$- 15.05$.

silver technical chart

silver technical chart

A good resistance on silver chart stands at 16.75$, Once traders break and close above this level. Then expect good recovery in silver price upto 17.20$- 17.60$ this week.

Silver forecast conclusion: Silver trend is flat to weak for now. Watch our daily technical levels to take any trade.

Mcx weekly gold levels (July) are: 30580 support, 31070 resistance.

Mcx weekly silver levels (June) are: 38700 support, 41150 resistance.

Please note mcx levels can be change during market hours due to Usd/Inr movement.

Subscribe our paid newsletter to get intraday levels daily.

Major Data we will be watching this week.

Monday: UK’s construction numbers, US monthly factory orders.

Tuesday: ECB president speech, US non manufacturing data.

Wednesday: Crude oil inventories.

Thursday: US unemployment claims.

Friday: China’s Trade balance.

Happy trading.

Mohammad Arafat